The British Financial Times highlighted the possibility of war on North Korea and said lessons learned from previous wars were that wrong calculations could lead to a major war. For example, the Germans failed to expect Britain to participate in the battle because of Belgium in 1914, Stalin also failed to predict Hitler’s invasion of Russia.
“The Japanese and Americans also did not understand the motives of each of them frequently, and the United States failed to anticipate China’s intervention in the 1950 Korean War,” she said. The North Korean situation now foreshadows the same threat, especially as the North Korean society is so closed that it is difficult for experts to study their behavior and predict their reactions, increasing the chances of the parties making a mistake.
The two main leaders of the battle, North Korean President Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump, are unpredictable, raising the threat of a war with dire consequences, the newspaper said.
Kim’s pursuit of advanced nuclear weapons is believed to be the motive for the search for security. The newspaper said the North Korean president saw what happened to both Saddam Hussein in Iraq and Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, who failed to obtain these weapons, leading him to believe that only nuclear weapons could ensure his staying in power.
The British newspaper considered this view relatively reassuring because it indicates that Kim is unlikely to use nuclear weapons first. But there are aspects of the behavior of the North Korean leader that may not fit this relatively comfortable picture. If deterrence is his only concern, why should Kim provoke the United States, Japan and even China?
The newspaper added that the risk lies in the possibility that Kim’s calculations are wrong, especially with the unpredictability of President Trump’s actions, which could respond to the Korean threat to declare war.